Pokémon TCG rippers in Staines and worldwide, as Ascended Heroes drops January 30, 2026, Japanese MEGA Dream ex data (1,000+ packs analyzed) reveals the real odds for this 295-card behemoth—78 secrets, Mega Dragonite ex leads, and god packs lurking! For the full deep-dive stats, check this essential CardChill article on Ascended Heroes Pull Rates. Gear up at CardChill—track releases on the Pokémon TCG sets page, hunt top cards, explore the Pokémon hub, and dive into more via articles.
Prereleases are buzzing with pulls, but JP baselines (yuzupon frage, Gamepedia) guarantee excitement: 1 SAR/27 packs, 100% SR/MA per box! English mirrors closely (5-10% tweaks), making ETBs/Boxes rip-worthy. Let’s unpack the numbers for your hunt strategy!
Japanese Mega Dream ex Per Pack Odds: From Commons to Unicorns
Compiled from 1,000+ packs, these odds set English expectations—fair mid-tier with chase thrills!
- UR/MUR: 1/500 packs – Ultra-rares like Mega Dragonite ex MUR are box unicorns.
- SAR Total: 1/27 packs (Pokemon 1/33, Supporter 1/154) – 17 types, ~3.7% any SAR hit.
- SR Supporter: 1/118 (3 types).
- SR Non-Supporter: 1/10 (6 types) – Guaranteed box staple!
- MA (Mega Attack Rare): 1/10 (10 types) – Fresh Mega flair.
- AR/IR: 1/3.3 (20 types) – Art flood!
- RR: 1/2.5 (27 types).
- Reverse Holo/Mirror: 1/1.4 (236 types) – 7/box themed (Poke Ball)!
God packs? 0.5% boxes (1/200) – AR + 5 MA + 4 SAR jackpot!
| Rarity | Per Pack Odds | Types | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| UR/MUR | 1/500 | 1 | Dragonite ex rarity king |
| SAR Total | 1/27 | 17 | Pokemon heavy (1/33) |
| SR Non-Supp. | 1/10 | 6 | Box guarantee |
| MA | 1/10 | 10 | Mega attacks shine |
| AR/IR | 1/3.3 | 20 | Art lovers’ dream |
Box Guarantees: Basic, Hit & God Pack Patterns Decoded
JP boxes (10 packs) split 50/50 Basic/Hit, with 0.5% god packs—English ETBs (9 packs) scale down proportionally.
- Basic (50%): 4 RR, 3 AR, 1 SR non-supporter, 1 MA + 7 reverses.
- Hit (50%): Basic + SR Supporter/SAR/UR (~36.5% SAR: 30% Pokemon, 6.5% Supporter).
- God Pack (0.5%): Basic + AR + 5 MA + 4 SAR – $1k+ EV!
Per box avgs: 0.365 SAR, 3 AR, 1 MA/SR, 4 RR, 7 reverses. English: Expect 3 AR, 1 MA/SR, ~0.3 SAR in ETBs!
| Pattern | Probability | Key Hits/Box | EV Boost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic | 50% | 3 AR, 1 MA/SR | Baseline fun |
| Hit | 50% | + SAR/SR Supp./UR | 36.5% SAR shot |
| God Pack | 0.5% | + AR + 5 MA + 4 SAR | Jackpot! |
Top Chases & English Expectations: Values & Hunt Tips
JP prices (¥→USD) guide EN raw ests—Gengar SAR $460 tops!
- Mega Gengar ex SAR: 1/4,650 specific – Purple god pack fave.
- Mega Dragonite ex MUR: 1/50,000 – Unicorn mascot.
- Pikachu ex SAR: 1/4,650 – $255 hype.
- Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SAR: 1/4,650 – $160 meta.
- Mega Dragonite ex SAR: 1/4,650 – $165 soar.
English swaps (Charizard Y MA) boost EV. Prereleases drier (1 SIR/67+ packs), but full print evens out.
| Chase | Rarity | JP Price | Specific Odds | EN Est. Raw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar SAR | SAR | $460 | 1/4,650 | $400+ |
| Dragonite MUR | MUR | $370 | 1/50k | $300+ |
| Pikachu SAR | SAR | $255 | 1/4,650 | $200+ |
Tips: Boxes/ETBs for guarantees; singles for chases. Prereleases now!
Data shines—Ascended Heroes rewards the grind!