Are you ripping open Pokémon TCG booster packs, heart pounding for that god pack? Understanding Pokémon TCG pull rates is key to managing expectations, spotting value, and chasing those Ultra Rares, Illustration Rares, and Secret Rares. Whether you’re a collector, player, or investor, this guide breaks down the odds, compares sets, and reveals the best and worst Pokémon TCG sets for pulls in the Scarlet & Violet era and beyond.
At CardChill, your West London Pokémon TCG specialists, we stock premium sealed products like Booster Boxes and Elite Trainer Boxes. Ready to crack packs? Let’s dive in.
Table of Contents
- What Are Pull Rates in Pokémon TCG?
- Booster Pack Structure in Scarlet & Violet Era
- Average Pull Rates Across Sets
- Best Pokémon TCG Sets for Pull Rates
- Worst Pokémon TCG Sets for Pull Rates
- Factors Affecting Pull Rates
- Tips to Maximize Pulls from CardChill
- Pull Rates in 2025-2026 Sets
- FAQs
What Are Pull Rates in Pokémon TCG?
Pull rates refer to the probability of pulling specific card rarities from booster packs. These aren’t random—they’re set by The Pokémon Company, based on massive print runs and card pools. A “hit” typically means a Double Rare (ex), Ultra Rare, Illustration Rare (IR), Special Illustration Rare (SIR), Hyper Rare, or ACE SPEC.
Data from openings of thousands of packs (via sites like TCGplayer) shows hit rates around 20-30% per pack in Scarlet & Violet sets—meaning 1 in 3-5 packs yields something exciting. But chase cards like SIRs? 1 in 80-100+ packs.
Booster Pack Structure in Scarlet & Violet Era
Modern packs have 12 cards:
- 4 Commons
- 3 Uncommons
- 1 Rare/Double Rare slot
- Reverse Holo slots (can upgrade to IR/SIR/Hyper)
- 1 Basic Energy (sometimes special)
The magic happens in the Rare and Reverse Holo slots. Special sets like Paldean Fates add extra shiny slots.
Average Pull Rates Across Sets
Pull rates vary slightly but follow patterns. Here’s a comparison from TCGplayer data across key Scarlet & Violet sets:
| Rarity | Scarlet & Violet Base | Temporal Forces | Surging Sparks | Overall Avg (1 in X Packs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 7 | 1 in 6 | 1 in 6 | 1 in 6-7 |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 15 | 1 in 15 | 1 in 15 | 1 in 15 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 13 | 1 in 13 | 1 in 13 | 1 in 13 |
| Special IR (SIR) | 1 in 32 | 1 in 86 | 1 in 87 | 1 in 80-90 |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 54 | 1 in 139 | 1 in 188 | 1 in 100-150 |
| Overall Hit Rate | ~30% | ~16-25% | ~20% | 20-30% |
Rates are per pack, with 95% confidence from 8,000+ openings. Larger card pools dilute specific pulls.
Best Pokémon TCG Sets for Pull Rates
Chase value? Target these generous sets, stocked at CardChill’s Pokémon TCG Sets. Top 5 from 2025 data:
- Paldean Fates (Special Set): Two hit slots (Shiny + Rare). ~1 hit every 2 packs. Shiny ex galore—best for consistency.
- Temporal Forces: Top normal set. Double Rare 1/6, IR 1/13. 3-5 full arts per box.
- Obsidian Flames: Underrated hits in ETBs/packs. Charizard chases with solid rates.
- Scarlet & Violet – 151: Nostalgia + strong pulls (full arts of Mew/starters). Great from tins.
- Scarlet & Violet Base: Generous SIR 1/32, overall 30% hits.
Shop Crown Zenith (older special) for similar vibes—19%+ hits.
| Set | Key Strength | Packs for SIR |
|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates | Dual slots | N/A (Shiny focus) |
| Temporal Forces | High IR/UR | 1/86 |
| 151 | Nostalgic full arts | ~1/50 |
Worst Pokémon TCG Sets for Pull Rates
Buyer beware—these have diluted pools or stingy top-end rates. Still fun, but expect bricks.
- Surging Sparks: SIR 1/87, Hyper 1/188. Community gripes on specifics.
- Twilight Masquerade: Low SIR odds, larger pool.
- Paradox Rift: SIR 1/~100 (worse than Temporal).
- Prismatic Evolutions: Early data shows tough SIR (improved to 1/45 later).
- Journey Together: 16% base hit (drops without extras), though Double Rare 1/5 helps.
Avoid singles-heavy ripping; better for sealed holds.
Factors Affecting Pull Rates
- Card Pool Size: 60+ Secret Rares = worse specifics (e.g., Surging Sparks 61).
- Print Run: High-volume sets stabilize rates.
- Special vs. Main: Specials (151, Fates) often better.
- Language/Region: English rates standard; JP may vary slightly.
- RNG: Variance—open boxes (36 packs) for averages.
Tips to Maximize Pulls from CardChill
- Buy Booster Boxes for bulk odds.
- Target best sets via our TCG Sets page.
- Check reviews for fresh data.
- Sealed investing: Poor pulls boost resale.
- Fast UK shipping from West London—stock up!
Pro Tip: Use pull rate calculators like PokéProbability for EV.
Pull Rates in 2025-2026 Sets
Mega Evolution era kicks off strong:
- Phantasmal Flames: Matches prior rates, SIR improved.
- Journey Together: Better than 2024 mains (IR 1/12).
- Black Bolt/White Flare: Low Black/White Rares, but solid base.
Expect tweaks—2026 favors collectors.
Conclusion
Pokémon TCG pull rates hover at 20-30% hits, with specials shining brightest. Rip Paldean Fates or Temporal Forces for joy; tread light on Surging Sparks. Head to CardChill for authentic packs—your next pull awaits!
