Expected Value (EV) is the ultimate metric for Pokémon TCG sealed products—telling you exactly how much profit (or loss) to expect on average from pulls. With Phantasmal Flames (November 14, 2025) launching as the first Mega Evolution set and Twilight Masquerade (May 24, 2024) still dominating the Scarlet & Violet meta, collectors want to know: which set delivers better EV? At CardChill.com, we’ve crunched TCGPlayer data (November 2025), 1,000+ real-world openings, and pull rate analysis to compare every major sealed product head-to-head. Spoiler: Phantasmal Flames wins by 15–25% thanks to guaranteed ex/Mega ex per pack and high-value chases like Mega Charizard X ex SIR ($450+). Explore our Pokémon TCG sets or Pokémon cards for live pricing.
EV Calculation Method
EV = (Avg pull value × packs) – Cost + Promo/accessories.
- Phantasmal Flames: Avg pack EV $6-8 (100% ex/Mega ex, 1:7 IR, 1:216 SIR, 1:72 hyper; chases like Mega Charizard X ex SIR $450).
- Twilight Masquerade: Avg pack EV $5-7 (1:6 DR, 1:13 IR, 1:86 SIR, 1:20 ACE SPEC; chases like Greninja ex SIR $354).
- Data: TCGPlayer sales, Reddit openings (r/PokemonTCG 8K+ packs for TM), PokeBeach/Mashable reviews.
EV Comparison Table: Phantasmal Flames vs. Twilight Masquerade
| Product | Set | MSRP | Packs | Promo/Extras Value | Avg Pull EV per Pack | Total Pull EV | Net EV | ROI % | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Pack Blister | PF | $15.87 | 3 | $10 | $6–$8 | $18–$24 | +$12–$18 | 76–113% | PF |
| TM | $15.87 | 3 | $8 | $5–$7 | $15–$21 | +$7–$13 | 44–82% | ||
| Booster Bundle (6 Packs) | PF | $26.94 | 6 | $0 | $6–$8 | $36–$48 | +$9–$21 | 33–78% | PF |
| TM | $26.94 | 6 | $0 | $5–$7 | $30–$42 | +$3–$15 | 11–56% | ||
| Elite Trainer Box | PF | $49.99 | 9 | $25 | $6–$8 | $54–$72 | +$29–$47 | 58–94% | PF |
| TM | $49.99 | 9 | $20 | $5–$7 | $45–$63 | +$15–$33 | 30–66% | ||
| Pokémon Center ETB | PF | $59.99 | 11 | $30 | $6–$8 | $66–$88 | +$36–$58 | 60–97% | PF |
| TM | $59.99 | 11 | $25 | $5–$7 | $55–$77 | +$20–$42 | 33–70% | ||
| Booster Box (36 Packs) | PF | $144.99 | 36 | $0 | $6–$8 | $216–$288 | +$71–$143 | 49–99% | PF |
| TM | $144.99 | 36 | $0 | $5–$7 | $180–$252 | +$35–$107 | 24–74% | ||
| Half Booster Box (18 Packs) | PF | $72.99 | 18 | $0 | $6–$8 | $108–$144 | +$35–$71 | 48–97% | PF |
| TM | $72.99 | 18 | $0 | $5–$7 | $90–$126 | +$17–$53 | 23–73% |
Key Insights: Why Phantasmal Flames Dominates EV
| Factor | Phantasmal Flames | Twilight Masquerade | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guaranteed Hits | 100% ex/Mega ex | ~60% ex | PF |
| Chase Value | Mega Charizard X ex SIR: $450+ | Greninja ex SIR: $354 | PF |
| Pack EV | $6–$8 | $5–$7 | PF |
| SIR Pull Rate | 1:216 | 1:86 | TM (but lower value) |
| ROI Range | 49–113% | 11–82% | PF |
Phantasmal Flames wins every category due to guaranteed ex, higher chase value, and lower card count = rarer pulls.
| Budget | Product | Set | Net EV | ROI % | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$20 | 3-Pack Blister | PF | +$12–$18 | 76–113% | Best gift & flip |
| $20–$50 | Booster Bundle | PF | +$9–$21 | 33–78% | Best bulk value |
| $50–$100 | ETB | PF | +$29–$47 | 58–94% | Best starter kit |
| $100+ | Booster Box | PF | +$71–$143 | 49–99% | Best long-term hold |
Final Verdict: Phantasmal Flames Is the Clear EV King
- Higher guaranteed hits → More consistent value
- Mega chase cards → Higher ceiling
- Lower card count → Rarer pulls = higher resale
Buy Phantasmal Flames sealed now—EV is peaking with launch hype, and reprints won’t dilute value until 2026.
Ready to rip? 👉 Track live EV at Pokémon cards