Ascended Heroes has only been out for a few days (launched January 30, 2026), and the market is moving fast. Early chase cards are pulling massive hype, with raw prices already in the hundreds to over $1,000 for the absolute top hits. Here’s a snapshot of the current (early February 2026) raw market leaders from TCGPlayer and community sales data:
- Mega Gengar ex SIR (#284 or variant) — Raw around $1,231 (some early flips hit $1,300+ on eBay promotions).
- Pikachu SIR (#276) — Raw $790.
- Mega Dragonite ex (#295 or variant) — Raw $697.
- Mega Charizard Y SIR (#294) GOLD — Raw $686.
- Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SIR (#281) — Raw $550.
Lower but still strong chases include:
- Pikachu variant (#277) — $480.
- Mega Dragonite ex (#290) — $404.
- Lillie’s Clefairy SIR (#280) — $277.
- N’s Zoroark SIR (#286) — $222.
- Mega Feraligatr SIR (#274) — $222.
The list continues down to solid mid-tier plays like Iono’s Bellibolt SIR ($190), Mega Meganium SIR ($189), Fezandipiti SIR ($185), and Mega Froslass SIR ($170). Even commons and uncommons like Drakloak ($51), Dreepy ($47), and Marill ($46) are moving due to set volume and nostalgia.
These prices reflect pure launch-week frenzy: FOMO from staggered releases (no booster boxes Day 1, just blisters/Tech Collections/Pokémon Day bundles), scalping shortages, and the set’s massive 290+ card count with 22 SIRs, 33 IRs, and 7 Mega Attack Rares (MARs). Mega Gengar ex is the undisputed king—its shadowy, cinematic artwork and Gengar fanbase have driven bids sky-high, with some raw copies clearing $1,200+ in the first 48 hours.
Graded slabs are starting to trickle in (PSA/BGS/CGC submissions from prerelease and Day 1 opens), but populations are tiny right now—most top chases have 0–5 PSA 10s on record. Early slab prices are 2–3x raw (e.g., a hypothetical PSA 10 Mega Gengar could push $2,500–$3,000 if pop stays low), but it’s pure speculation. The market is too volatile for reliable slab comps yet—grading queues are long, and early returns often see “overgraded” corrections or dumps as more submissions hit.
Why It’s Too Early to Invest in Singles Right Now
The biggest takeaway from the first week: it’s too early to chase singles or slabs as investments. Launch prices are inflated by hype, low supply (staggered product drops mean fewer packs in circulation), and scalper markups. We’ve seen this pattern before—Prismatic Evolutions SIRs peaked at launch then dropped 30–50% within 1–2 months as full ETBs/boxes flooded the market and print runs stabilized. Ascended Heroes follows the same playbook: no booster boxes until later waves, so current singles are priced on scarcity + FOMO, not equilibrium supply.
Community sentiment (Reddit r/PokeInvesting, X threads) largely agrees: “Do not buy Ascended Heroes singles right now—pre-release and launch prices are always inflated,” with many advising to wait for February 20 ETB drops when more packs hit and prices normalize. Early EV from small-product openings (blisters/Tech Stickers) is positive for IRs/MARs but negative for top SIR chases—your expected value per pack is below retail if you’re hunting specific cards like Mega Gengar.
Slabs are even riskier at this stage. With minimal pop reports and grading backlogs, you’re buying into hype without data. A PSA 10 could be worth double raw in a month… or crash if pop explodes or the set underperforms long-term. Better to wait for 1,000+ graded samples and stabilized prices before slab investing.
Better Plays for Now
- Sealed Focus: Tech Sticker Collections, blisters, and Pokémon Day bundles are appreciating fast (e.g., Techs from $40 MSRP to $60+ resale). Hold sealed for potential 50–100% upside as the set dries up and anniversary hype builds.
- Wait for Full Release Waves: ETBs (Feb 20) and later products will increase supply, likely dropping raw singles 20–40% from current peaks. That’s the window to buy chases at better entry points.
- Long-Term Outlook: Ascended Heroes has strong potential (Mega nostalgia + large chase list), but early singles/slabs are high-risk hype buys. Patience wins in modern TCG investing—let the market settle.
The set is incredible—artwork, mechanics, nostalgia—but the smart money waits. What’s your top chase from Ascended Heroes? Pulled anything wild yet? Share in r/CardChill on Reddit—let’s track the market together!
Pokémon TCG Price Crashes Post-Launch: Ascended Heroes vs. Previous Sets
In the Pokémon TCG world, launch-week hype for special sets like Ascended Heroes (Jan 30, 2026) always drives raw prices sky-high—Mega Gengar ex SIR at $1,231 raw is a perfect example of FOMO-fueled peaks. But history shows these crashes hard and fast as supply ramps up. Right now (Feb 2, 2026), Ascended Heroes is still in “peak insanity” mode: limited blisters/Tech Collections mean few packs opened, scalping shortages, and bidder wars. No meaningful drop yet—prices are holding or even ticking up 5-10% on eBay solds. Expect the first cracks by Feb 20 (ETB wave), with full stabilization 2-4 months out.
The Classic Crash Pattern
Modern special sets follow a predictable arc:
- Launch Week (Days 1-7): +20-50% spike on pre-release hype. Supply tiny → prices moon.
- Weeks 2-4 (Full Product Drops): 20-40% crash as ETBs/boxes flood TCGPlayer. Early openers dump hits.
- Months 1-2: Another 20-30% dip (total 40-60% off peak) as print runs peak and meta settles.
- Months 3-6: Stabilize at 50-70% of launch peak for top SIRs. Losers bottom out; winners (iconic art/meta staples) rebound 10-20%.
This is driven by: staggered releases (like Ascended’s no Day 1 boxes), reprint waves, and seller saturation.
Ascended Heroes: Crash Incoming (Current vs. Predicted)
Top chases are pristine now, but Feb 20 ETBs will unleash thousands of packs. Early signs: Minor softening on mid-tiers (e.g., Mega Hawlucha ex dipped 5% in 48 hours).
| Card | Launch Peak Raw (Jan 30-Feb 1) | Current (Feb 2) | Predicted 1-Month Low | Predicted Stabilized (May 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex SIR | $1,300+ | $1,231 | $700-900 (-35%) | $800-1,000 |
| Pikachu SIR #276 | $850 | $790 | $450-600 | $500-700 |
| Mega Dragonite ex #295 | $750 | $697 | $400-500 | $450-600 |
| Mega Charizard Y SIR | $720 | $686 | $400-500 | $450-600 |
Comparisons to Previous Sets: How They Crashed & Stabilized
Prismatic Evolutions (Jan 17, 2025 launch): Umbreon ex SIR peaked ~$600-700 raw Week 1, crashed 45% to $350 by Feb end (ETB flood), another 20% dip to $280 by Mar. Stabilized ~$400-450 by May 2025 (3-4 months), now holding $940+ (Dec 2025-Jan 2026) due to Eevee nostalgia. Total drop: 55% off peak; rebound +100% long-term.
Surging Sparks (Nov 2024? Context early 2025): Top Pikachu ex SIR ~$400 peak, crashed 40% Month 1 to $240 (reprints), stabilized $200-250 by Feb 2025 (3 months). Videos noted “crashing AND spiking” volatility, but settled lower than Prismatic due to less iconic art.
Destined Rivals (May 30, 2025): Mewtwo ex SIR ~$600 peak, 35% drop to $390 Month 1, stabilized $350-400 by Sep 2025 (4 months). Now “finally stabilizing” per recent reports, holding firm amid SV wind-down.
Average Across Specials: 40-55% total crash in 1-2 months; full stabilize 3-6 months at 50-60% peak. Winners (Gengar-like icons) rebound; losers fade.
Why Ascended Heroes Will Follow (But With Twists)
- Staggered Supply: Feb 20 ETBs = big dump, like Prismatic’s Feb crash.
- Print Run: High for specials → saturation by Mar.
- Anniversary Boost: 30th hype could cap downside, stabilize faster (2-3 months).
- Community Warning: X/Reddit: “Wait for drop—pre-release singles peak always crash.”
Timeline for Ascended:
- Feb (Week 2-4): 20-30% drop post-ETBs.
- Mar-Apr: Full 40-50% off peak.
- May-Jun: Stabilize (2-4 months total).
Buy the dip post-Feb 20 for chases; sealed now for moonshots. Track on TCGPlayer price guides.
Staggered Release: Why Prices Might Stay Elevated Longer (But the Crash Is Still Coming – Proceed with Caution)
One unique factor setting Ascended Heroes apart—and potentially propping up those sky-high launch prices longer than usual—is its staggered release schedule. Unlike standard expansions that drop everything (booster boxes, ETBs, etc.) on Day 1, this special set rolled out in waves: January 30 brought only limited items like triple blisters, Tech Sticker Collections (Charmander/Gastly), and the Pokémon Day 2026 Collection. Full Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs) aren’t arriving until February 20, 2026, with additional products (e.g., possible bundles or exclusives) stretching into March-April. And crucially, no booster boxes at all—a hallmark of special sets that keeps overall pack supply throttled.
This drip-feed approach means fewer packs in circulation right now, sustaining scarcity and FOMO. Community chatter on Reddit (r/PokemonTCG_UK) and Instagram calls it a “weird time” that could “spread out the hype,” preventing an immediate flood while keeping raw prices elevated—e.g., Mega Gengar ex SIR holding $1,200+ instead of dipping 20% overnight like Prismatic Evolutions did post-ETB drop. Resellers love it: Limited stock = prolonged scalping ($40 Tech Stickers flipping at $65), delaying the seller saturation that tanks prices in traditional launches.
But don’t get complacent—this is a temporary buoy. History from similar staggered specials (e.g., Prismatic’s phased ETBs) shows prices hold 10-20% higher through Month 1, then crash harder (45-60% off peak) once waves hit. Feb 20 ETBs will unleash thousands more packs, openers will dump duplicates, and print runs (high for specials) will normalize supply by March. X and Facebook groups warn: “Staggered = prices up now, but buy high at your peril—wait for the dump.”
Everyone needs to be careful: If you’re eyeing singles/slabs at current peaks, the staggered delay buys time (maybe 4-6 weeks of firmness), but the inevitable crash looms larger. Smart play: Avoid FOMO buys; monitor TCGPlayer for early softening mid-Feb, then pounce post-ETB. Sealed remains safer—staggering boosts short-term flips, but long-hold for anniversary synergy.
Staggered releases innovate hype management, but they don’t defy gravity. Prices will drop—stay vigilant! 🚀
How Long before we see Slabs and PSA10 Prices?
The Ascended Heroes pulls from last week (late January 2026 prerelease and Day 1 openings on January 30) are already flooding submission queues at PSA, and with the company’s current backlog, slabbed cards (graded returns) won’t start hitting the market in any meaningful volume for at least 8–12 weeks from submission date—meaning most of those early pulls won’t be back as PSA 10s or 9s until late March to mid-April 2026 at the earliest, and likely stretching into May–June for the bulk of them.
PSA’s official estimated turnaround times (as updated late 2025 and still active in early February 2026) have ballooned due to unprecedented submission volumes—TCG cards (especially Pokémon) make up a huge portion of the workload. For the most common tiers collectors use for modern Pokémon chases:
- Value / Value Bulk (most popular for Ascended Heroes hits): 95–120 business days (roughly 4–6 months calendar time, including holidays and weekends off).
- Value Plus / Economy (what many rushed in for): 25–45 business days (about 5–9 weeks calendar), but real-world reports show 60–90+ days with queues.
- Regular / Express: 20–30 business days advertised, but often 45–75+ in practice right now.
These estimates start from when PSA actually receives and enters your package (not ship date), and recent community reports (Reddit r/psagrading, Facebook groups, Instagram submission partners) confirm receiving queues alone average 15–30 business days before grading even begins. For prerelease pulls shipped last week (e.g., January 25–31), many are still sitting in “Order Arrived” or “Receiving” status—meaning the clock hasn’t fully started on the turnaround.
Why the long delay for Ascended Heroes specifically?
- Massive surge: The set’s launch (Mega Gengar ex SIR, Pikachu SIRs, Mega Charizard Y) triggered a flood—PSA grades 1.5–1.7 million cards monthly overall, with TCG/Pokémon often 40–50% of volume.
- Backlog carryover: November 2025 updates already pushed times to 95+ days on bulk/value; 2026 holiday/launch wave piled on.
- No fast-track for modern: Express/Premium (5–15 days) is pricier ($75–$200+/card) and reserved for high-value; most Ascended chasers (raw $100–$1,200) go economy/value, so they sit longer.
Real-world examples from collectors submitting late 2025/early 2026 Pokémon cards:
- Submissions from November–December 2025 are only now returning (3–5 months).
- Some January 2026 bulk/value orders have estimated completion dates into April–June 2026.
- Partners like GameStop or submission shops report “100-day” estimates for Q1 2026 drops.
What this means for the market:
- First meaningful slabs from Ascended Heroes Day 1 pulls likely start appearing mid-March 2026 (fastest Express/Value Plus returns).
- Volume flood (thousands of PSA 10s on top chases) hits April–May, when prices could dip 20–40% as supply normalizes (classic post-launch pattern).
- Too early for reliable slab investing: Populations are tiny (0–10 PSA 10s per major SIR right now), so any slab sales are outliers—wait for pop 50–100+ to see true value.
If you submitted Ascended pulls last week, track your order on PSAcard.com (check “My Orders” for status). Patience is key—grading queues are long, but the slabs will come. In the meantime, sealed holds or raw flips are safer than waiting on speculative slabs.
Got your Ascended pulls submitted? What’s your service tier and estimated return date? Share in r/CardChill on Reddit—let’s track the queue together!
For more on Ascended Heroes chases, pricing trends, and grading tips, check our TCG Sets hub or investment guide. 🚀
