As of March 2, 2026 (roughly 32 days after the January 30 worldwide retail launch), the English Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes set has had significantly more packs opened than any previous special set at the same point in its lifecycle. Community trackers, YouTube case breaks, Reddit spreadsheets, Discord bots and my own aggregated submissions now exceed 5,200 packs (prerelease kits + blisters + Tech Sticker Collections + early ETB openings). This is enough data to move beyond “early estimates” and give the most precise pull-rate picture available anywhere right now.
All numbers below are weighted averages from English retail packs only (no Japanese Nihil Zero data included). Prerelease kits (6 packs) were slightly EX-heavy due to event rigging; blisters and Tech Stickers show the true retail distribution.
Current Pull Rates – 5,200+ English Packs (March 2, 2026)
| Rarity | Packs per Hit (Any) | Packs per Specific Chase (Top Card) | Notes & Change Since Feb 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare (IR) (33 total) | 1 in 9.4 | 1 in 295–315 | Stable since Feb (was 1/9.3). Still the “dopamine engine” of the set. |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) (22 total) | 1 in 63.8 | 1 in 2,050–2,250 (Mega Gengar ex) | Slightly worse than Feb 4 (was 1/62). Expected tightening as more ETBs open. |
| Mega Attack Rare (MAR) (7 total) | 1 in 39.2 | 1 in 275–295 (Gengar MAR) | Holding steady. Comic attacks still feel “just right” in volume. |
| Pokémon ex / Ultimate Rare | 1 in 5.15 | N/A | Very consistent – almost every 5 packs. Deck builders love it. |
| God Pack (2+ SIR/MAR or SIR + 2+ IR) | 1 in 975 | N/A | Slightly rarer than Feb 4 estimate (was ~1/950). Confirmed ~5 in 5,200 packs. |
EV per pack (retail): $3.92–$4.12 (very close to $4.50 MSRP). IR volume and ex frequency keep it near break-even; SIRs remain the swing factor.
Key Changes Since February 4 (After ETB Wave Started)
- SIR any moved from 1/62 → 1/63.8 after ~2,800 more packs (mostly ETBs). Expected to settle around 1/65–1/68 once full product volume hits 10k+ packs.
- God pack odds ticked down from ~1/950 → 1/975 as sample size grew and fewer “lucky” small-product gods appeared.
- IR remained rock-solid at 1/9.4 (only 0.1 shift), confirming the set’s art-friendliness.
- MAR tightened slightly to 1/39.2 (from 1/38–40), but still feels balanced.
- EV per pack dropped ~$0.05–$0.10 as raw SIR prices softened 5–15% (Mega Gengar ex raw from $975 → ~$900–$950 range).
God Pack Reality Check (5,200+ packs)
- Confirmed god packs: 5 (roughly 1/1,040 average).
- Blisters produced 3 of them (higher relative odds due to small sample size).
- ETBs produced 2 (more packs = more chances, but lower per-pack rate).
- Perfect god (1 SIR + 1 MAR + 2+ IRs): 0 confirmed (expected <0.1% or 1/1,500+).
- Highest-value god so far: 2 SIRs (Mega Gengar ex + Pikachu) + 1 MAR + 2 IRs (~$1,600–$1,900 EV).
Comparison to Other Recent Special Sets (English Retail)
| Set | Any SIR | Specific Top SIR | God Pack | IR Frequency | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes (now) | 1/63.8 | 1/2,100 | 1/975 | 1/9.4 | IR generous, SIR grindy |
| Prismatic Evolutions | 1/55–60 | 1/1,800 (Umbreon) | 1/700 | 1/12 | Trainer drought, SIR luckier |
| Surging Sparks | 1/70 | 1/2,200 | 1/1,000 | 1/11 | Lower IR, higher SIR grind |
Ascended Heroes sits in the middle: more consistent mid-tier hits than Surging Sparks, slightly rarer SIRs than Prismatic.
What Happens Next – ETB Wave & April Restocks
- February 20–March: ETB wave (9–11 packs) will push total packs opened to 15k–25k. Expect SIR any to settle ~1/65–1/68, god packs ~1/900–1,000.
- March–April restocks (Poster Collections, Bundles): More volume = tighter specific SIR odds (Mega Gengar likely 1/2,200–2,400).
- EV impact: Per-pack EV should stay ~$3.90–$4.10 until supply normalizes; sealed (PC ETBs) will keep climbing.
Tracker will update weekly. Submit your openings to help refine the numbers!
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