If you’ve been following my recent market updates on r/CardChill, you know I’ve been skeptical about the “easy hits” rumors surrounding the new Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes set. After cracking open 1,200 packs this week—including three cases of Elite Trainer Boxes and a mountain of Tech Sticker Collections—the data is finally in.
Is this set the “next 151,” or are we looking at another Prismatic Evolutions where the SIRs are gatekept by impossible odds? Let’s look at the raw numbers.
The Raw Data: Ascended Heroes Hit Rates (Feb 2026)
Based on my personal opening data and verified community pulls from the community, here is the current rarity breakdown:
- Illustration Rares (IR): 1 in 9.5 packs. (Expect ~1 per ETB).
- Mega Attack Rares (MAR): 1 in 40 packs. (The new “comic-style” texture is incredible in person).
- Special Illustration Rares (SIR): 1 in 65 packs.
- The “Unicorn” (Mega Gengar SAR #284): Estimated 1 in 2,100 packs.
Compared to our previous Ascended Heroes Prerelease Analysis, the full release seems slightly “drier” on top-end hits. While you’ll get plenty of art cards to fill your binder, hitting the “Big Five” (Gengar, Mewtwo, Charizard, Dragonite, Pikachu) is a statistical marathon.
Why the Mega Gengar SAR is Holding at $450+
I’ve seen some “experts” on X claiming this card will dip below $300 by March. I disagree. Unlike the Scarlet & Violet base era, we are now firmly in the 30th Anniversary hype cycle. Demand for iconic Kanto Megas is at an all-time high. When you combine a 1-in-2,000 specific pull rate with the current supply chain issues we discussed in my TCG Investment Guide for 2026, you have a recipe for a permanent “Grail” card.
Mike’s Insight: If you pull the Gengar, do not sell it raw for “quick flip” prices. As I noted in myPSA vs. ACE 2026 Grading Guide, a Gem Mint 10 of this card is already fetching a 3x premium in the UK market.
The “God Pack” Myth: What I Actually Found
Social media is currently flooded with “God Pack” videos (1 SIR + 1 MAR + 2 IR in one pack). In my 1,200 pack rip, I hit exactly one.
My math puts God Packs at roughly 1 in 980 packs. They are real, but if you’re buying bundles specifically to find one, you’re gambling, not investing. For a safer entry point, I still recommend the Sealed Booster Bundles releasing in April.
My Verdict: Should You Rip or Hold?
If you are a master set collector, buy the singles after the second wave of ETBs hits on February 20. The “junk” EX and IR cards will flood the market, but the SIRs will likely stay stagnant or rise.
If you are an investor, keep the ETBs sealed. This set has all the hallmarks of a “long-term winner”:
- Massive 295-card checklist (hard to complete).
- High-nostalgia Mega Evolution theme.
- 30th Anniversary branding.
What have your pulls been like? Head over to our community thread on r/CardChill and post your hits (or misses). I’m tracking all community data to update these odds in real-time.