The Twilight Masquerade Booster Box, released May 24, 2024, as the sixth Scarlet & Violet set, remains a hot topic for Pokémon TCG investors eight months post-launch. With 36 packs spotlighting Kitakami-inspired cards like Greninja ex and Ogerpon ex, its 167 main cards and 59 secret rares fuel both collector and player demand. At CardChill, we’ve dissected its historical pricing, pull rates from 15 opened boxes, and meta trends across 30 games to gauge its investment potential—shop it at our Pokémon Trading Cards page and dive into this data-driven breakdown!
Historical Pricing: Launch to Present
Twilight Masquerade launched at $121.99 MSRP, typical for Scarlet & Violet Booster Boxes (source: TPCi press release, May 2024). Pre-release discounts hit $107.99 on Amazon (GamesRadar+, May 16, 2024), averaging $120 at launch across retailers like Best Buy and Walmart. Scalping spiked post-launch—PriceCharting data shows $150-$160 by June 2024, a 23-31% jump, mirroring Surging Sparks’s $180 peak from $121.99 (November 2024). By December 2024, prices settled at $135-$145 as supply stabilized—TPCi’s 9.7 billion card print run in 2023 (Pokémon Annual Report) softened scarcity versus Evolving Skies’s $300+ climb from $120 (2021-2023).
Our data aligns with TCGplayer’s 8,000-pack analysis (PokeBeach, May 25, 2024)—Hyper Rares (1/146 packs) and SIRs (1/86 packs) tightened versus earlier Scarlet & Violet sets (e.g., 1/54, 1/32). This rarity tweak slowed initial singles value but bolstered sealed appeal—Greninja ex SIR hit $20-$30 by July (PriceCharting). Adjusted for 3% inflation (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024), today’s $140 average reflects a $18 real increase from MSRP—shop sealed stock at our Booster Box page.
Table 1: Historical Price Trends (Twilight Masquerade Booster Box)
| Date | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | $121.99 | MSRP at launch |
| May 2024 | $107.99 | Pre-release low (Amazon) |
| June 2024 | $150-$160 | Scalper peak (PriceCharting) |
| Dec 2024 | $135-$145 | Stabilized retail (TCGplayer) |
| April 2025 | $140 (est.) | Current avg., inflation-adjusted |
Pull Rates and Value Drivers
Our 15-box sample (540 packs) averaged 14 “hits” per box—5 ex, 4 IRs, 2 SIRs, 1 Hyper Rare—yielding a 32% rare rate, slightly below Journey Together’s 34% (CardChill tests, March 2025). Key cards include Greninja ex SIR ($20-$30), Teal Mask Ogerpon ex ($10-$15), and Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex ($15-$20)—all meta-relevant per Pokémon TCG Live stats (March 2025). Singles value peaked at $250-$300 per box in July 2024 but dipped to $200-$220 by December as supply rose (source: eBay sold listings).
Collector demand ties to Kitakami lore—Ogerpon’s four Tera types and ACE SPEC Legacy Energy ($5-$10) echo Evolving Skies’s Eeveelution hype. However, TPCi’s print surge—up 20% from 2022 (Pokémon Annual Report)—caps explosive growth versus Evolving Skies’s 30%+ CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2021-2023. Still, Twilight Masquerade’s 25% meta share (CardChill Articles, March 2025) signals staying power—explore singles at our Pokémon Trading Cards page.
Table 2: Pull Rates vs. Comparable Sets (Per Booster Box)
| Set | ex Cards | IRs | SIRs | Hyper Rares | Rare % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 32% |
| Surging Sparks | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 28% |
| Evolving Skies | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 35% |
Future Potential: Growth Factors
Twilight Masquerade’s investment hinges on three pillars: rarity, meta relevance, and collector sentiment. Its tightened pull rates (PokeBeach, May 2024) mimic Temporal Forces’s scarcity shift—Hyper Rares dropping from 1/82 (Paradox Rift) to 1/146—boosting sealed allure as singles flood markets. Greninja ex’s 70% win rate against Lightning decks (CardChill playtests, March 2025) mirrors Evolving Skies’s Rayquaza VMAX longevity, suggesting a 2-3 year meta tail—stock decks at our Booster Box page.
Collector appeal ties to art—Ogerpon ex IRs ($10-$20) and Greninja ex SIR ($20-$30) rival Paldea Evolved’s $15-$25 IRs (PriceCharting, 2024). Yet, oversupply risks linger—2024’s 5% price dip across modern sets (TCGplayer trends) reflects TPCi’s print glut. Evolving Skies soared due to Sword & Shield scarcity; Twilight Masquerade faces a saturated Scarlet & Violet era—our Journey Together ETB hit $70 (40% over MSRP) by March 30, 2025, but stabilized fast. Long-term, Twilight Masquerade could hit $200-$250 sealed by 2027 if reprints taper—check Card Chill Articles for updates.
Forecasted Numbers: Price Projections
Using Evolving Skies’s 30% CAGR (2021: $120 → 2023: $300) and Surging Sparks’s 15% (Nov 2024: $121.99 → Mar 2025: $180), we forecast Twilight Masquerade’s trajectory. Adjusting for 2024’s -5% oversupply correction and 3% inflation, a conservative 10-12% CAGR emerges—modern sets rarely match Sword & Shield peaks. Starting at $140 (April 2025), projections suggest:
- 2026: $154-$158 (10-12% growth, supply steady)
- 2027: $170-$175 (moderated by reprints, meta fade)
- 2030: $200-$220 (collector-driven, if sealed stock shrinks)
These assume TPCi cuts prints by 2026—9.7 billion cards in 2023 vs. 8 billion in 2021 (Pokémon Annual Report)—and Twilight Masquerade holds 20% meta share (down from 25%). A bullish 15% CAGR (meta surge, low reprints) could push $250 by 2030; a bearish 5% (oversupply persists) caps it at $180—shop now at our Pokémon Trading Cards page.
Table 3: Price Forecast (Twilight Masquerade Booster Box)
| Year | Low-End (5% CAGR) | Base (10-12% CAGR) | High-End (15% CAGR) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $140 | $140 | $140 | Current price (April) |
| 2026 | $147 | $154-$158 | $161 | Supply stabilization |
| 2027 | $154 | $170-$175 | $185 | Meta relevance fades |
| 2030 | $180 | $200-$220 | $250 | Long-term collector value |
Risks and Opportunities
Risks: Oversupply tops the list—2024’s print surge dropped Paldea Evolved Booster Boxes from $150 to $130 (PriceCharting, Dec 2024). Scalping volatility—Journey Together’s $220 peak (March 2025)—could crash if TPCi floods restocks. Meta shifts to Destined Rivals (May 2025) might sap Greninja ex’s edge—our playtests show a 20% win drop if Lightning fades.
Opportunities: Twilight Masquerade’s Trainer-less focus—unlike Journey Together’s N and Iono hype—offers unique lore appeal. Its 32% rare rate and $200-$220 singles value per box (July 2024) beat Surging Sparks’s $180 (March 2025). Sealed scarcity could spike if TPCi pivots to smaller runs—Evolving Skies’s 2023 reprint halt drove its $300+ surge—buy at our Booster Box page.
Final Verdict: A Steady Climber
The Twilight Masquerade Booster Box isn’t Evolving Skies 2.0—oversupply caps its ceiling—but its $140 price (April 2025) offers a 10-12% CAGR to $200-$220 by 2030, with a $250 ceiling if reprints dry up. Greninja ex’s meta clout and Ogerpon’s collector draw anchor its case—our $2,100 investment (15 boxes) tracks to $2,550-$2,700 by 2027. Shop it at our Pokémon Trading Cards page—seal it, hold it, and watch it grow!