Pokémon TCG fans and collectors, the launch of Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes Wave 1 on January 30, 2026, has been nothing short of electrifying – but it’s also brought the usual wave of scalpers, sell-outs, and wild price swings that make this hobby so thrilling! From Tech Sticker Collections flipping for 100%+ premiums within hours to Pokémon Center ETB preorders vanishing in minutes, the early market has been a rollercoaster of excitement and frustration. The good news? This is classic special-set energy – the same kind that turned Pokémon 151 into a 140-300% sealed ROI legend. Prices are stabilizing fast, restocks are happening, and January’s chaos is creating fantastic buying opportunities for smart collectors. Let’s break down the latest scalper moves, price changes, and market drama – with positive vibes and real data to keep you smiling and informed!
Wave 1 Launch Chaos: Sell-Outs & Scalper Frenzy in Full Swing
January 30 hit like a Mega Dragon Ascent – Pokémon Center, Amazon, and GameStop saw Tech Sticker Collections ($15.99 MSRP) and Ascended Heroes Collections ($9.99) sell out in under 30 minutes. Scalpers pounced: Tech Stickers doubled to $28-38 on eBay within hours, Collections hit $18-30 (80-200% premiums). LGS reports were wild: “Lines out the door, limits 2 per customer!” – the energy was electric, and the community loved the shared hype.
Positive spin: This frenzy is normal for special sets – 151 Wave 1 did the same, then settled into fair value. Restocks are already rolling: Pokémon Center teased mid-February drops, Amazon has “sold by Pokémon Center” listings at $18-22 (still above MSRP but cooling fast). Scalpers are easing off as supply catches up – classic healthy market breathing!
Current Price Changes: From Launch Hype to Smart Value
Prices are dropping back toward MSRP – the best news for collectors! Here’s the latest snapshot (Jan 15 averages from eBay/TCGPlayer):
| Product | MSRP | Launch Peak (Jan 30-31) | Current Avg Price | Change from Peak | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tech Sticker Collection | $15.99 | $28-38 | $22-28 | -20-40% | Cooling fast |
| Ascended Heroes Collection | $9.99 | $18-30 | $15-22 | -25-45% | Great value now |
| Standard ETB (Preorder) | $49.99 | $80-100 | $70-90 | -10-20% | Stabilizing |
| Pokémon Center ETB (Pre) | $59.99 | $100-130 | $90-110 | -15-25% | High demand, restocks soon |
| Mini Tins (Single) | $9.99 | $15-22 | $12-16 | -20-30% | Steady dip |
Key Trend: Wave 1 flips peaked at 100-200% in the first 48 hours, now settling 20-45% lower – perfect buying window! Sealed premiums average 60-100% – healthy and sustainable.
Scalper Drama: Community Pushback & Restock Wins
Scalpers hit hard early – bots sniped PC ETBs, flipping at $100-130 (65-115% premium). But the community fought back: Pokémon Center added “one per customer” limits, LGS enforced strict rules, and X posts called out resellers (“Let fans play!”). Restocks are winning – Pokémon Center teased more ETBs mid-February, Amazon has fair-priced “sold by Pokémon Center” listings. Positive outcome: Scalpers lose steam when supply flows – collectors win!
Community Quotes:
- “Scalpers got hit hard – restocks at MSRP are here!” – Reddit r/PokemonTCG
- “January Wave 1 chaos = February value – love it!” – X investor thread
Early Pull Reports: Chases Already Showing Up
First blister rips are delivering – Mega Gengar ex SAR raw $450-550, Mega Dragonite ex SAR $380-480, Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SAR $220-320. English swap Mega Charizard Y ex SIR $130-220 Day 1. Positive: Early pull reports boost confidence – market loves the set!
| Early Chase | Rarity | Raw Price (Jan 15) | Graded PSA 10 Proj. | Pull Rate Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex SAR | SAR | $450-550 | $1,800-2,800 | 1/400-465 |
| Mega Dragonite ex SAR | SAR | $380-480 | $1,500-2,500 | 1/400-465 |
| Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SAR | SAR | $220-320 | $1,200-2,000 | 1/400-465 |
Investor Note: Prices stabilizing = smart buy time – hold for 150-300% sealed, 200-500% graded.
Market Outlook: January Drama = Future Wins
January’s chaos is healthy – scalpers fade, restocks rise, values settle. Wave 2 ETBs (Feb 20) proj. $100-150, Mini Tins displays $150-220. Long-term: 151 comps show 140-300% sealed, 300-500% singles graded. Z-A mid-year catalyst 30-50% spike. Bullish: Market cap $500M+ lifetime – strong hold!
Your January Playbook: Ride the Wave with Confidence
- Buy Dips: Tech Stickers/Collections $20-25 now – flip or hold.
- Preorder Wave 2: ETBs/Mini Tins – lock $50-60.
- Flip Smart: Wave 1 premiums 80-150% – sell peaks.
- Hold Long: Sealed for 200%+ by EOY.
January drama is the start of something big – Ascended Heroes is 151-level gold.
