Trainers, the moment you’ve been waiting for – Ascended Heroes pull rates decoded from Japan’s MEGA Dream ex openings! See and check all Ascended Heroes Chase Cards – Since the high-class pack’s November 28 launch, over 1,000+ boxes cracked (per frage reports and YouTube mega-openings) confirm generous guarantees but stingy gods. Expect the English special set (Jan 30, 2026) to mirror: 3 ARs, 1 MA, 1 SR (non-supporter), and 7 reverse holos per 10-pack box, with SAR ~1/2-3 boxes and MUR/God Packs as unicorns. No official odds (TPCi style), but community data (yuzuponX, PokeInsight, Gamepedia) paints a ripper’s dream: EV ~$150-200/box equivalent, beating Phantasmal Flames’ 1/80 SIRs. With 290+ cards, 22 SIRs, 13 Megas like Dragonite ex, and chases (Gengar ex SAR ¥73k/$460), staggered products mean premium pulls. Dive into the stats – your wallet’s ascension guide!
UPDATE JANUARY 27th 2026
Hey Pokémon TCG pull chasers! With Ascended Heroes (English version of JP MEGA Dream ex) hitting full release January 30, 2026, prerelease events (Jan 17-25) have already unleashed a wave of openings—and the data is in! This massive 295-card special set (largest English ever with 78 secret rares) boasts Mega stars like Mega Dragonite ex, Mega Gengar ex SAR, and Pikachu ex SAR, but early pulls paint a tough chase picture. Japanese box data guarantees solid hits, yet English prereleases show stingy SIRs. Dive into the numbers at CardChill—track via Pokémon TCG sets, chase top cards, explore the Pokémon hub, and read more in articles.
Compiled from 1,000+ JP packs (yuzupon, Gamepedia) and fresh prerelease openings (YouTube/Reddit/X), here’s your ultimate guide to odds—spoiler: Boxes guarantee fun, but chases demand luck!
| Rarity | Per Pack Odds | Per Box Odds (%) | Avg/Box |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUR/UR (e.g., Mega Dragonite ex) | 1/500 | 2% (1/50) | 0.02 |
| SAR (Total, 17 types) | 1/27 | 36.5% (1/2.7) | 0.365 |
| SAR Pokémon | 1/33 | 30% | 0.3 |
| SAR Supporter | 1/154 | 6.5% | 0.065 |
| SR Supporter (3) | 1/118 | 8.5% | 0.085 |
| SR Non-Supporter (6) | 1/10 | 100% (guaranteed) | 1 |
| MA (10) | 1/10 | 100% (guaranteed) | 1 |
| AR/IR (20) | 1/3.3 | 300% | 3 |
| RR (27) | 1/2.5 | ~40% | 4 |
| Reverse Holo | 1/1.4 | 700% | 7 |
God Packs: ~0.5% boxes (1/200)—AR + 5 MA + 4 SAR. Boxes worth it for guarantees (3 AR/MA/SR avg), but singles smarter for chases (PokeInsight).
English Prerelease Data: Tougher Than Expected?
Prereleases (6 packs/entry) yield anecdotal heat: YouTube “Early Pull Rates Revealed” (2 days ago) and “Are Pull Rates TOO EASY?” (3 days) analyze 100-500 packs—SIRs scarce (0 in first 100 packs per Mystic7).
X/Reddit lowlights:
- @knoyhead (74K views): Mystic7’s 100 packs: “No SIRs, & nothing better than a double rare ex until the 9:00 mark.”
- @JuiceProphet: 100+ packs: “ONE Mega Attack Rare and ZERO SIRs.”
- Reddit: $400/20 packs = 3 IR + 1 TFA; 100 packs “not looking good.”
Early English ~20-30% stingier on SIR/SAR vs JP? Small samples (prereleases limit volume), but trend: 1 SIR/50-100 packs.
Top 10 Chase Cards: Odds, Values & Hunt Tips
PokeBeach lists 78 secrets (33 IR, 14 UR)—chases from JP prices (Dec 2025, ¥→USD).
| Rank | Card | Rarity | JP Price (USD) | Est. Per Pack (JP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mega Gengar ex SAR | SAR | $460 | 1/4,650 | Purple flames god pack king. |
| 2 | Mega Dragonite ex MUR | MUR | $370 | 1/50,000 | Box mascot unicorn. |
| 3 | Pikachu ex SAR | SAR | $255 | 1/4,650 | Starter hype beast. |
| 4 | Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SAR | SAR | $160 | 1/4,650 | Tier 1 meta monster. |
| 5 | Mega Dragonite ex SAR | SAR | $165 | 1/4,650 | Soaring stunner. |
| 6 | Cynthia’s Spiritomb IR | IR | N/A | 1/100+ (est.) | Community fave. |
| 7 | Larry’s Staraptor IR | IR | N/A | 1/100+ | Prerelease hype. |
| 8 | Mega Charizard Y ex (MAR) | MAR | N/A | 1/100 | English swap. |
| 9 | Iono’s Bellibolt ex SAR | SAR | N/A | 1/4,650 | Electric chase. |
| 10 | Steven’s Metagross ex SAR | SAR | N/A | 1/4,650 | Steel powerhouse. |
MEGA Dream ex Box Structure: 10 Packs, Patterned Guarantees
Japanese boxes = 10 packs x 10 cards (Energy + code). Two patterns (~50/50 split):
| Pattern | Contents Per Box | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Basic (50%) | 4 RR, 3 AR, 1 SR (non-supporter), 1 MA | Core hits; 7 reverse holos (Poke Ball themed). |
| Hit (50%) | Basic + 1 SR Supporter/SAR/UR | ~36.5% SAR total (30% Pokemon, 6.5% Supporter). |
| God Pack (0.5%) | Basic + 1 AR, 5 MA, 4 SAR | Top: AR; ultra-rare jackpot. |
Detailed Rarity Pull Rates: Per Pack & Per Box (JP Data)
Compiled from 1,000+ packs (yuzupon frage, Gamepedia openings). Per pack odds derived (10 packs/box); English may tweak 5-10%.
| Rarity | Types | Per Pack Odds | Per Box Odds | Per Box Avg Pulls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UR/MUR (e.g., Dragonite ex MUR) | 1 | 1/500 | 2.0% (1/50) | 0.02 |
| SAR (Total) | 17 | 1/27 | 36.5% (1/2.7) | 0.365 |
| – SAR Pokemon | – | 1/33 | 30% | 0.3 |
| – SAR Supporter | – | 1/154 | 6.5% | 0.065 |
| SR Supporter | 3 | 1/118 | 8.5% | 0.085 |
| SR Non-Supporter | 6 | 1/10 | 100% (1/box) | 1 |
| MA (Mega Attack Rare) | 10 | 1/10 | 100% (1/box) | 1 |
| AR (Art Rare/IR) | 20 | 1/3.3 | 300% (3/box) | 3 |
| RR | 27 | 1/2.5 | ~40% | 4 |
| Reverse Holo/Mirror | 236 | 1/1.4 | 700% (7/box) | 7 |
Key Stats: Any SAR 1/27 packs (~3.7%); God Pack ~0.5% box (~1/200 boxes). Sample: 500+ frage packs for AR/SR; 200 boxes for SAR/MUR.
Top Chase Cards & Their Specific Odds
JP prices (Dec 10, ¥→USD): Gengar ex SAR ¥73k/$460 (1/400+ specific). English swaps (Charizard Y) boost EV.
| Chase | Rarity | JP Price (USD) | Specific Per Pack | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex SAR | SAR | $460 | 1/4,650 | Purple flames god. |
| Mega Dragonite ex MUR | MUR | $370 | 1/50,000 | Box mascot unicorn. |
| Pikachu ex SAR | SAR | $255 | 1/4,650 | Starter hype. |
| Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex SAR | SAR | $160 | 1/4,650 | Tier 1 meta. |
| Mega Dragonite ex SAR | SAR | $165 | 1/4,650 | Soaring stunner. |
| Mega Charizard X ex MA | MA | $34 | 1/100 | English Y swap. |
EV/Box ~¥20-30k ($130-190) – packs $13-19 EV.
Product Pull Expectations: English Wave Breakdown
No boxes = curated rips. Scale JP 10-pack box to products:
| Product | Packs | Expected Hits (Avg) | EV Est. ($ MSRP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tech Sticker (Jan 30) | 3 | 0.9 AR, 0.3 MA/SR | $25-35 ($16) |
| ETB Standard (Feb 20) | 9 | 2.7 AR, 0.9 MA/SR, 0.3 SAR | $80-110 ($50) |
| PC ETB | 11 | 3.3 AR, 1.1 MA/SR, 0.4 SAR | $100-140 ($60) |
| Mini Tin | 2 | 0.6 AR, 0.2 MA/SR | $12-18 ($10) |
| Poster Coll. (Mar 20) | 10 | 3 AR, 1 MA/SR, 0.365 SAR | $90-130 ($50) |
| Booster Bundle (Apr 24) | 6 | 1.8 AR, 0.6 MA/SR | $40-60 ($27) |
ETBs crush value; Tins for art chases
Comparisons: Better Than Phantasmal Flames?
- vs. Phantasmal (1/58 SIR): Ascended 1/27 SAR – 2x better!
- vs. 151: Similar AR flood (3/box), but MAs add flair.
- God Packs: Rarer than Stellar Crown (1/1k), but 5 MA/4 SAR = $1k+ EV.
JP boxes dipped ¥11-13k ($75-85); English scarcity = $20+/pack resale.
Pull Tips & Investment Angle
Rip Strategy: Wave 1 Tech Stickers for quick MA; ETBs for SAR hunts. Bulk Bundles late-game. EV Beats MSRP – arbitrage opens for singles (Gengar $400+).
Investors: Sealed ETBs 100-200% ROI (151 parallel); grade SARs (2.5x). Risks: English tweaks, overprint Waves 1-2.
Ascended Heroes pull rates = god-tier for specials – 3 ARs/box baseline? Rip responsibly!
Compiled from YouTube streams, X reports, and community trackers (1,000-2,000+ packs sampled), rates feel “middle-tier” or dry—great for sealed value! For live stock and chases, visit CardChill—check the Pokémon TCG sets page, hunt top cards, browse the Pokémon hub, and stay updated via articles.
While JP MEGA Dream ex guarantees fun (e.g., 1 SAR/27 packs), English prereleases lean tougher on SIRs/SARs (1/67-91), echoing Prismatic Evolutions vibes but with solid mid-tier hits. X exploded: Mystic7’s 100-pack dry rip (no SIRs) went viral (74K views). Let’s review the data positively—fair rates mean chase excitement and strong ROI!
Prerelease Sample Size: Solid Early Data from Streams & Locals
Prereleases (6 packs/entry) limit volume, but aggregated openings paint a clear picture: ~1,500-2,500 packs across YouTube (Mystic7, Gotta Mitch Em All), Whatnot streams, and LGS reports. Key sources:
- 1,000 packs (Gotta Mitch Em All, 16 hours ago): Comprehensive stats, no golds/god packs.
- 104 packs (ripping shippers, 2 days ago): SIR-focused analysis.
- Anecdotes: Mystic7 (100 packs, 0 SIRs); JuiceProphet (100+, 1 MAR/0 SIRs); Reddit ($400/20 packs = 3 IR/1 TFA).
Small batches show “batching” (streaks of dries/hits), but trends hold: Mid-rarities plentiful, tops elusive. Positive: Keeps the hunt thrilling!
English Pull Rates: Key Stats from 1,000+ Packs
Compiled averages (weighted by samples):
- EX: 1/5 packs (185/1,000)—strong starter hits.
- IR/AR (33 total): 1/8 packs (123/1,000); specific
1/264 ($5K at $20/pack). - FA: 1/17 packs (58/1,000).
- MAR (10): 1/33 packs (30/1,000); specific ~1/330.
- SAR/SIR (22 total): 1/67-91 packs (15/1,000; 11/104); specific ~1/1,474-2,002 ($29K+ at $20/pack).
- UR/MUR/Golds: 0 pulled (est. 1/1,000+ packs).
- God Packs: 0 (est. 0.5% boxes).
| Rarity | English Prerelease (1/ Packs) | Sample Notes |
|---|---|---|
| EX | 1/5 | 185/1,000 |
| IR/AR | 1/8 | 123/1,000 |
| MAR | 1/33 | 30/1,000 |
| SAR/SIR | 1/67-91 | 15/1,000; 11/104 |
| Golds/UR | 0 pulled | Est. 1/1,000+ |
JP vs. English: Slightly Stingier, But Playable
JP MEGA Dream ex (1,000+ packs): SAR 1/27 pack, SR Supporter 1/118, god packs 1/200 boxes. English prereleases: ~2-3x drier on SIR/SAR (1/67+), no golds vs. JP sightings. Why? Print tweaks, batching, or small samples? X: “Pull rates seem awful again” (PokeHEX, 88K views).
Positive: Keeps singles valuable ($100-700 raw chases)!
| Rarity | JP (1/Pack) | English Prerelease (1/Pack) |
|---|---|---|
| SAR/SIR | 1/27-33 | 1/67-91 |
| MAR | 1/10 | 1/33 |
| IR/AR | 1/3.3 | 1/8 |
Top Chases: Pulled Hits & Dry Ghosts
From openings:
- Pulled: Entei SIR, Pikachu SIRs (both), Mega Pidgeot MAR, Mega Gengar (near-miss), Mega Ho-Oh MAR, Grimmsnarl SIR (x2), Mega Scrafty MAR, Surfer Dude (x2).
- Dry: Mega Dragonite ex SIR/MUR, Mewtwo SIR, Gengar SIR—no golds/god packs.
JP prices guide EN est: Mega Gengar SAR $460, Dragonite MUR $370, Pikachu SAR $255.
| Top Chase | Status | Est. EN Pack Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex SAR | Pulled (near) | 1/4,650 |
| Mega Dragonite ex SIR | Dry | 1/2,000+ |
| Pikachu ex SAR | Pulled | 1/4,650 |
Review Verdict: Dry But Fair – Sealed Wins Big!
English rates: 6.5/10—mid-tier dryness rewards patience (strong EX/IR, tough tops). Better than Prismatic, sealed holds shine (40-80% ROI potential). Strategy: ETBs/Boxes for fun/guarantees; singles for chases. Prereleases now—grab packs!
